2024
When are ammo prices going back to normal
The short answer is, when people start to feel safe and secure again. The ammo rush is directly related to the firearm rush (record month again last month) by scared people. Covid uncertainty and BLM/Antifa riots have created more new gun owners than ever. New owners need ammo.
And, at the worst possible time, disruptions from Covid and the Remington implosion reduced industry ammo production, so there was an immediate shortage. And, as if that werenāt enough, stimulus money and pending inflation have driven gun people to add hard goods before the sticker prices inevitably take off. And the rush builds the rush when scarcity starts to become widespread and panic buying sets in. Scarcity breeds price increase - supply and demand. And this repeats/compounds itself every time there is a āmassā shooting event and the āleadershipā threatens to take away 2A rights.
That was a lot of āAnds.ā Did I cover it all?
Not to mention hoarding. The current situation with gas demonstrates; as it did with TP and as it did with ammo, people who donāt need that much are buying far more than they could ever use in a realistic amount of time. Why buy one box when you could buy a case? We have people filling up storage bins, gas cans, trash pails and even plastic bags with gas! Most of these people donāt need that, they simply do it because they are either really dumb or really scared - worst case scenario, both.
I go to the range normally once a month. I keep about 300 rounds per firearm as a basic load. I go to the range and replace what I use. Most people who have been purchasing in the past 18 months have been to the range once, if at all. The ones who have been to the range, from what Iāve seen, should never touch a firearm.
Iām grateful I live in a state (Texas) where no one gets to tell me what I need. Itās nobodyās business.
If people quit being silly & paying the outrageous quadruple the norm prices, prices WILL DROP! Guaranteed!!
While I donāt disagree with the concept of demand driving prices, supply has also been negatively affected, domestically but especially in other countries where either component or complete manufacturing occurs. Couple that with the losses sustained by companies who specialize in online sales of mostly ammo and are now able to recoup some of those losses and you have a perfect storm of higher prices. Im grateful that my suspicious nature motivated me to stock up back in early 2019 when things began to spiral downward both economically and politically.
I doubt they will go back anytime soon. Between the rapid inflation of the dollar, and the lack of materials, itās not looking good.
Lol, Iām not an economics guy, just analytical by nature. I think the factors that will determine if/when the prices will go down are the (real or perceived) scarcity of ammo and the (real or perceived) threat to future supply. If the number of new gun owners starts to finally slow down (no indicators of that happening just yet) and/or the manufacturers start to truly catch up (some positive signs on that front), this should all go the way of the last few ammo price spikes and ultimately result in a surplus of ammo, and thus a price drop back to normal levels (whatever that will be with the inevitable goods price inflation that is coming).
It is possible that ammo will go the way of the AR. Prior to Trumpās election in 2016, manufacturers and stores bulked way up on making/buying ARs, assuming Hillary would win, gun ownership (ARs particularly) would be threatened, demand to get an AR would spike and prices would skyrocket. When she lost, they were left holding a ton of AR inventory and they had to drop prices to try to get them out the door. I believe that is part of the reason why, even during this latest buying frenzy, ARs can still be had for less than during the Newtown scare. Supply and production capacity remains.
Ammo could go that way if mfrs keep producing as much as possible and stores keep stocking up until they canāt get any more onto the shelves and the warehouses start to fill up. We might see prices drop down to ānormalā levels if that happens. I doubt weāll see overproduction to the point where the prices sink extra low, because inflation will likely eat that up, unless the powers that be suddenly reform their ways and decide to stop printing monopoly money.
And, as we well know, a lot will ride on whether another major event or potential legislation/regulation threatens safety or ownership or production as well. It only takes something getting nationwide traction to start a spike all over again.
All that said, Iām sitting on my full caliber ammo that was purchased mainly before the spike until supply catches up and prices start to normalize again. The only thing I have purchased lately was a buttload of .22lr, simply to be my go to round for training and plinking, at least until things calm back down. Iām seeing some minimal progress with bulk ammo, but not enough yet to get me to buy it. The supply is coming back slowly, and the pricing should follow, particularly if we can all hold out until it builds up a bit. Iām hoping for maybe this fall or winter (barring said events).
Agree with everything you wrote. I would just add that hyperinflation will make buying lots of ammo less of a priority to 90% of gun owners, including 99% of new gun owners. Hard to justify stockpiling ammo when you canāt afford a tank of gas. Future events will drive the cost and availability of ammo. Another round of woke riots, looting and arson. Definitely the 2024 election and itās perceived integrity. Until cooler heads prevail I fear we are in for some bad days ahead.
You cannot eat the whole elephant in one biteā¦ā¦ā¦each time your at your favorite sporting store. Get yourself a box of ammoā¦ā¦ having a stock pile of ammunition is built one box at a time. You should have enough ammo to sustain your shooting lifestyle for a long time. Whether itās 5 rounds per year for huntingā¦.or 100 rounds for each range sessionā¦ā¦you decide. Have your stock pile and you will never experience an ammo shortage. Make sure you replace the ammo your using. Good ammunition has a life cycle as good as a human beingā¦so donāt worry about how old it is.
Use care when posting online about your ammunition for your use. Some people think 1 or 2 hundred rounds of ammo is excessiveā¦ā¦where as we shooters know that a couple of hundred rounds is just a relaxing day at the range. The Trolls are out thereā¦.so use discretion.
Good stuff. IMO-Ammunition and more ammunition and training is the best upgrade you can do for yourself.
New round, at least to me ā¦ I wonāt start yet another new thread when there is an existing one. Tired of dozens of new threads every week, when there are existing ones. Just need to hit search button and there probably is one already thereā¦
Anyway - here it is. Havenāt seen any rifles for this round either, maybe some of yāall haveā¦ Elongated bullet for stable flight, twice as heavy as .22lr bullets
